If you’ve read my novel, you’d know that overpopulation is important to the plot and something I believe presents a serious hazard for future civilization due to the damage it could cause to the environment and our way of life. The opposite problem—population collapse due to the collapsing birthrates in some industrialized countries—is also a concern.
From my point of view, these are the same problem: the lack of a workable model of population stability. We need a system where the population is neither collapsing nor expanding. Our current model of civilization rests on the knife’s edge, falling towards either expansion or uncontrolled collapse, while presenting hazards for both our environment and our future genetic health.
The perils that our current model of civilization presents to human genetic health is well known in the scientific literature. Take, for example, the conclusions of this peer-reviewed article written by geneticist Michael Lynch:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2824313/
“Finally, a consideration of the long-term consequences of current human behavior for deleterious-mutation accumulation leads to the conclusion that a substantial reduction in human fitness can be expected over the next few centuries in industrialized societies unless novel means of genetic intervention are developed.”
Computer Modeling Human Population Genetics
A computer model of human genetics that I have made shows these problems clearly: Any public policy or cultural trend that seeks to discourage overpopulation by preventing the formation of large families—such as the China two-child family policy or voluntary efforts to limit family size—will lead to a long-term decline in human genetic health. The reason for this decline is an accumulation of genetic load due to lack of natural selection. Some type of natural selection (for example: the sexual selection produced when people choose mates from a large pool of possible suitors) is necessary for life. The computer model shows that a certain variance in family size—i.e. variance in reproductive success—is needed for bad mutations to be removed in aggregate. Without variance in reproductive success, natural selection cannot reduce the number of bad mutations. The computer model shows that some individuals must have large numbers of children for this variance to be high enough to remove bad mutations as fast as they arise naturally.
The computer model and a discussion of its conclusions can be found here:
The Environmental Perils of Overpopulation
Our environmental problems on Planet Earth are myriad, but they all have the same root cause: People. There are too many of us, and we reproduce in an uncontrolled way. It is impossible to address our environmental concerns in a serious way without addressing overpopulation. People need energy. People need things. People need food. Yet our planet is filling up with trash and dangerous new chemicals, the world is warming due to agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels, and we are using natural resources in an unsustainable way. At some point, unless we put a stop to population growth, it will all come crashing down.
Stopgap measures, such as reducing consumption, switching to renewable resources, and reducing the amount of meat in our diets are absolutely necessary. However, all these efforts will be for nothing if the increased efficiency brought about by lower-impact living simply causes the carrying capacity of the Earth to increase–leading to yet another population boom.
If we continue allow our population to expand in an uncontrolled way, it will always approach the brink of whatever the environment can support. The more people there are, the lower the quality of life for each person, the more sacrifices people will need to make to live in harmony with nature, and the more dangerous things become for our natural ecosystems.
Family Medallion Zoning
To solve our overpopulation problems in a humane and genetically safe way, I propose “Family Medallion Zoning.” Here are some basic principles of how this plan would work:
- An organization–ideally a national government–would first issue “Family Medallions” to all families without discrimination. Each medallion would license a couple and their children to live in exclusive “Family Zones”–neighborhoods or cities that have opted to restrict their population by requiring medallions for residency.
- Medallions could not be bought or sold, only passed along to next-of-kin, such as to children or siblings. For the first generation, every family would have a medallion, but for the next generation, they could only pass their medallion on to one of their children.
- Anyone who lacks a family medallion would still be allowed to have children. However, welfare/tax incentives, scarcity of housing, and social pressure towards not having children would keep the population growth at sub-replacement level outside of the Family Zones.
- If a country is already overpopulated, then for the next generation, a license could require two medallions rather than one, halving number of potential new people next generation. Then both partners of a couple would need a medallion, rather than just one.
- After the one-time issuing, the total number of medallions would be fixed in number. These medallions would serve to track and maintain our priceless human genetic diversity by serving as an objective, non-discriminatory basis for limiting the total number of families in an area.
- All decisions on which children inherit the medallions or who marries who would be made by individuals and families, not by governments.
- All rules related to medallions would be drawn up and enforced by local zoning laws, not by a national police force. These local authorities would not have any powers beyond fines and evictions.
- Eventually, each area of the country would designate itself as a certain type of zone: “Family Zones” for families who possess family medallions and plan to raise children; “Sanctuary Zones” without any medallion rules, for other families and for migrants and refugees; “Childfree Zones” for areas where childless people will live and work, perhaps sending money back to their extended families; “Farming Zones” for strategic land set aside for farmers to grow the food we need; and “Ecological Zones” to preserve our national parks and natural biodiversity.
Nate's Science Fiction 